Jordan Roy-Byrne from The Daily Gold shares some research he has done on the relationship between a rising interest rate environment and gold/metals reaction. We also discuss the junior gold sector and what to look for in companies as we continue in the slow market.
In this interview I talked with Jordan Roy-Byrne who runs the website thedailygold.com to get this take on what is happening with gold prices now. Jordan used the technical analysis price charts for gold to judge the odds of a short-term rally back up towards $1360. He also talked about what he thinks it will take to bust that resistance point for good and bring in the next giant sustainable precious metals bull run. For more from Mike Swanson go to http://www.wallstreetwindow.com
Gold failed to breakout in the spring and recently lost weekly support at $1310. Meanwhile, the gold stocks have held up well in recent weeks (considering Gold) but still have much to prove. Silver couldn’t rally much when its net speculative position was at an all time low. The question now is where do things go from here. The price action is not bullish but with a Fed hike looming and negative sentiment, Gold could be poised to snapback after testing lower levels.
The technicals for Gold show a strong confluence of support at $1265 to $1270. It has traded as low as $1281 in recent days. Trendlines and long-term moving averages coalesce at $1265 to $1270. On the weekly chart, $1265 stands out as a key level. A little bit more selling could bring Gold down to key support.
Gold with Sentiment Indicators
The sentiment indicators (shown at the bottom of the above chart) are encouraging and would be more so with a test of that aforementioned support. The net speculative position as of last Tuesday hit 22.7% of open interest, which is one of the lowest readings of the past two years. The daily sentiment index hit only 10% bulls last week. It’s 21-day average is 32% bulls and if that fell below 30% it would mark a 9-month low.
Turning to the miners, we find a sector that continues to be wedged in between support and resistance. GDXJ has trendline and lateral support in the $31s with key resistance in the low $34s. GDX has immediate support at $22 and strong support at $21 while initial resistance is at $23. If Gold is to have another chance to breakout in the months ahead then GDX and GDXJ need to surpass their April highs.
GDXJ, GDX Daily Bar Charts
While we are concerned about Gold for the remainder of 2018, it could be setting up for a summer rally and especially if it drops to strong support around $1265. Sentiment would reach even more encouraging levels and that coupled with strong technical support could produce a rebound. In the meantime we continue to focus on and accumulate the juniors that have 300% to 500% return potential over the next 12 to 18 months. To follow our guidance and learn our favorite juniors for the balance of 2018, consider learning more about our premium service.
This is a 1-page trade update.
We are adding to two positions…
The 26-page update was published and emailed to subscribers early Sunday morning.
The update includes a report on one of our largest holdings, a company that has performed well regardless of the metals prices. We discussed the company’s outlook over the next 12 months as well as its 3-year outlook, which is that of a 15-bagger if it can execute. The company has one of the best management teams in the industry.
The update also included an important insight as to when precious metals would begin a real bull market.
With the recent selloff in gold there a number of bulls that say the sentiment is so low that a bounce is coming. While this is true Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me to discuss why he thinks this bounce will be weak. There are a number of factors that are limiting the upside potential of a breakout.
The US Dollar Index has already climbed from 88 to 93. What are the other key targets? What does history tell us about the potential future outcomes?
The flash update covers the sector technicals as well as charts on two companies we want to add to our positions in.
Last week we discussed the fundamentals of Gold, which do not appear bullish at the moment. Real rates (and yields) are rising and investment demand for Gold is flat. That in itself is a temporary but big missing link. However, we are referring to the missing link in the context of intermarket analysis. Gold is an asset that performs best when its outperforming its competitors. That’s true of any asset but especially Gold because it traditionally has been a counter-investment or an anti-investment. While Gold is firmly outperforming Bonds and showing strength against global currencies, it remains neutral to weak against global equities.
First, let’s take a look at Gold relative to foreign currencies (FC) and Bonds. At its 2016 peak, Gold/FC had already retraced the majority of its bear market. Last week Gold/FC managed to close at an 8-month high even as the US$ index rebounded. Gold has performed even better against Bonds and that includes dividends. A few months ago Gold relative to the major Bond ETFs (TLT and IEF) made a 3-year high. Those ratios remain above rising 200-day moving averages.
Gold vs. foreign currencies, TLT, IEF
It’s important for Gold to outperform foreign currencies because if Gold is only rising because of a weak US Dollar that represents a bear market in the dollar rather than a bull market in Gold.
Gold’s outperformance against Bonds is significant because Bonds represent an enormous capital market and Bonds are in some ways the antithesis of Gold.
Unfortunately, Gold has not been able to breakout in nominal terms and from an intermarket perspective, that is because of the strength in the stock market. The ratios below show that Gold relative to global equities is trading not too far above the 2015 lows. If these ratios retested their 2015 lows they’d be trading around 10-year lows!
Gold vs. global equities
Gold appears to have lost the 200-day moving average relative to global equity markets but if it can maintain its outperformance against Bonds and foreign currencies then it will be setup for a powerful move when it can break to the upside relative to equities. The negative is that change does not appear imminent but the positive is when it happens Gold should begin a major leg higher. In the meantime, we continue to focus on and accumulate the juniors that have 300% to 500% return potential over the next 12 to 18 months. To follow our guidance and learn our favorite juniors for the balance of 2018, consider learning more about our premium service.
The 31-page update was published and emailed to subscribers Saturday evening.
The update contains an updated report on one of our favorite companies, (p4-p9), subscriber Q & A (p10-p12) and non-technical/chart notes on many of holdings (p3).
In our summary we note that the sector is at or approaching a key juncture…
Recently in the resource sector we have seen everything including good news being ignored by investors. Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me today to share his thoughts on what companies need to be doing to attract investors and actually get money flowing into their stock. We also discuss the bigger picture when it comes to resistance levels for the whole sector. If the sector experiences a breakout then that will help flow money in but it does not look like that will happen for some time.
Ask some gold bugs why Gold has not broken out yet and you will probably get the usual answers. Some will say it’s due to manipulation or price suppression. Others will mention the current rally in the US Dollar (while neglecting that the previous decline in the greenback was unable to take Gold to a new high). Few would say the fundamentals are not in place. No one can know for certain but Gold’s fundamentals have not improved over the past year and are not where they need to be to support a breakout.
The vast majority of history shows us that Gold is inversely correlated to real interest rates (or real yields). It makes perfect sense because Gold has been money for thousands of years. When real rates decline, the real return on money in the bank or in a treasury bill or note decreases. Gold benefits. The corollary is also true. Rising real interest rates indicate stronger real return on money invested in the aforementioned instruments. That’s negative for Gold.
Real interest rates have actually strengthened for nearly 18 months, as the chart below shows. Gold has performed well during that period because of weakness in the US Dollar as well as some anticipation of an escalation in long-term yields.
Given the rise in real interest rates, it is not a surprise that investment demand for Gold has been weak. Gold bugs frequently trumpet strong demand from China and how tight the physical Gold market is but in reality, investment demand is what drives bull markets. Investment demand tends to respond to or follow negative and/or declining real interest rates.
One way of measuring investment demand in real time is by following the amount of Gold held in the GLD trust. As we can see below, investment demand (by this metric) confirmed the rebound in Gold in the first half of 2016. However, it has essentially been flat over the past 18 months as Gold rebounded from the low $1100s all the way to $1360.
Gold & Tons in GLD Trust
So if Gold’s fundamentals are not bullish and investment demand is flat, what conditions need to change that would benefit Gold?
Obviously, Gold needs declining real interest rates. It needs some combination of an acceleration in inflation and a pause or slowdown in short-term yields including the Fed Funds rate. Inflation has risen in recent quarters but short-term yields have risen faster as evidenced by the increase in real interest rates (shown in our first chart).
Weeks ago Gold was sniffing a breakout as long-term bond yields, such as the 10-year and 30-year yield were also threatening a breakout. An upside break in long-term yields would be significant for Gold as it would signal an increase in inflation expectations and pressure the balance sheets of both an over-indebted corporate sector as well as a government already running the largest non-recessionary, peacetime budget deficit in history. However, bond yields have yet to breakout even …read more