Hour 1 – The USD Impacting Emerging Markets and Metals
We hope everyone in the US has a great Memorial Day long weekend. This show we focus a lot on the USD move up in the past couple weeks and how it impacts other markets. Plus there is a lot to understand about the move up in the dollar. Listen in and please let me know what you think.
Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com. I love hearing about the companies you are all following and the questions you have about the sector!
Segment 1: We kick of the show with Bryon King and some “other metals” that have his attention.
Segment 2: Dan Oliver, Founder of Myrmikan Capital share his thoughts on the overall financial and banking system in the US.
Segment 3: I continue to chat with Dan Oliver but this time focus on the gold sector. We discuss the investors in the market and the main drivers he is watching for.
Segment 4: Chris Martenson from Peak Prosperity provides his insights on the emerging markets
Exclusive Company Updates, News, and Interviews
Hour 2 – KER Politics
Segment 5: Dr. Paul Kengor discusses his recent recent book called Dupes where is identifies some of his favorite recent people he feels were duped.
Segment 6: Big Al and Dr. John Huber discuss a potential solution to the problem of dramatic violence caused by shooters.
Segment 7: Big Al and Doctor Huber continue their discussion about dramatic violence.
Segment 8: Big Al and Jeff Pontius discuss the importance of investigating the political environment in the country where a potential investment is located.
The USD As A Reserve Currency And What’s Keeping It There
Jeff Deist joins me today to recap a recent presentation he gave focused on the USD and it’s roll as the world’s reserve currency. We both believe it will not last forever in this roll but the options of what could take over are wide ranging. Listen in a let us know what you think.
Comments On Oil And Metals
Doc and I wrap up the markets this week with a discussion about the fall in oil today. Down over $3 we discuss what the future holds for oil prices. We then look to the metals markets and push back the timeline for a major metals pop. It is encouraging to continue to see higher lows but the lack of any breakout continues to shy investors away from the sector.
We hope everyone in the US has a great long weekend!
Fireweed Zinc – Answering Your Questions On The PEA
Vancouver, British Columbia / May 24, 2018 / JMN Wire / Fireweed Zinc (TSX.V: FWZ) has released results of its Preliminary Economic Assessment on the Macmillan Pass Project in the Yukon.
Highlights include a 4,900 tonne per day operation that would process over 32 million tonnes across a 19-year mine life, producing around 85,000 tonnes of zinc annually along with lead and silver.
At an 8% discount rate and using a spot zinc price of C$1.21 per pound, the study reports an after-tax Net Present Value of $448 million and an Internal Rate of Return of 24%. Estimated pre-production capital expenditures come in at $404 million, suggesting a payback period timeline of 4 years.
Initial operations would focus on the Tom West and Jason Main zones to reduce up-front capital costs. The Company says that significant upside potential remains as known zones remain open for expansion and numerous exploration targets across a vast land package remain undrilled.
I chat with Brandon Macdonald to answer some of your questions on the details of the PEA, and look ahead to what’s in store for the Fireweed as we move closer to drill season.
USD Impacts On Emerging Markets and Commodities
The USD is pulling back today but during the run up in the past couple weeks emerging markets have been hit hard. On the other side commodities have held up well. Dana Lyons joins me to share his thoughts on the relationship between these markets. We also look at the US markets and the VIX.
Download audio file (2018_05_24-Dana-Lyons.mp3)
Here is a special that Dana is running that I recommend checking out…
If you’re interested in the “all-access” version of our charts and research, please check out our new site, The Lyons Share. You can follow our investment process and posture every day — including insights into what we’re looking to buy and sell and when. Plus, our SPRING SALE (25% OFF!!) is going on now so it’s a great time to sign up! Thanks for reading!
And here is the VIX chart we discussed.
The Fed Rate Hike Outlook and CoT Report Update
Craig Hemke joins me today to share his outlook for Fed rate hikes this year. After the minutes yesterday that were viewed as more dovish Craig thinks a total of 4 rate hikes this year is no longer on the table. We also recap the CoT report from last week where the commercial gross longs are at a historic level.
Download audio file (2018_05_24-Craig-Hemke.mp3)
Click here to visit Craig’s site.
Here is the chart of the gold price and timing of recent gross long commercial positions.
US Dollar Correction Over? Big Test Underway!
We have been talking a lot about the run up in the USD recently and now our friend Chris Kimble breaks down a key test that is around the corner. I know we have some differing opinions on the overall trend of the USD but from a technical perspective Chris points out what we need to watch.
Click here to visit Chris’s website for more great technical commentary.
…Here’s the article…
The U.S. Dollar Index has been mired in a correction for several months. During that time, stocks, gold, and oil exploded higher in 2017 and early 2018.
But the greenback has put together a multi-week rally. Is the correction nearing an end?
Looking at the chart below, you can see that the US Dollar Index has traded in a wide channel since bottoming in 2008 (1). It tested a mid-point trend line early in 2018 (2) and reversed back higher. It is now testing it’s downtrend resistance line (3).
U.S. Dollar Index Chart – Big Test!
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
A breakout here would be constructive for Dollar bulls. And it could set the stage for a test of the upper channel resistance (1). Some consolidation is possible here… bulls definitely would like to see a bull flag pattern develop (or an outright breakout).
However, should the Dollar reverse lower, it could set the stage for a retest of the 2018 lows.
In any event, commodity bulls/bears and asset managers should keep an eye on the Dollar in the weeks ahead!
FIREWEED ZINC ANNOUNCES POSITIVE PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT WITH PRE-TAX IRR OF 32% AND NPV8 OF C$779M ON MACMILLAN PASS PROJECT
Here is the PEA that we have been waiting for out of Fireweed Zinc (TSX.V:FWZ). There is a lot of information in the release so please take your time to read over it and let me know what you think.
I will be chatting with Brandon McDonald, Fireweed President and CEO tomorrow so please send me any questions to have to Fleck@kereport.com.
…Here’s the news…
Vancouver, British Columbia: FIREWEED ZINC LTD. (“Fireweed” or the “Company”) (TSXV: FWZ) is pleased to announce the positive results of an independent Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) for its Macmillan Pass Project (the “Project”) in Yukon, Canada. The PEA was prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (“NI 43-101”) by JDS Energy and Mining, Inc. (JDS) with work on tailings and water by Knight Piesold Consulting, both of Vancouver, Canada.
Production and Economic Highlights:
Long mine life and large-scale production:
18-year mine life with 32.7Mt of mineralization mined at 4,900 tonne-per-day average processing rate.
1.54Mt of Zinc, 0.88Mt of Lead, and 37Moz of Silver in concentrate shipped.
Average yearly contained-metal production of 85kt Zinc, 48kt Lead and 2Moz Silver.
Robust economics using metals prices of $1.21/lb Zn, $0.98/lb Pb, and $16.80/oz Ag:
Pre-Tax NPV at 8% of $779M CAD and IRR of 32%.
After-Tax NPV at 8% of $448M CAD and IRR of 24%.
Manageable CAPEX and rapid payback:
Pre-production CAPEX of $404M CAD.
Payback period of 3.9 4 years.
Starter-pits on Tom West and Jason Main zones reduce up-front capital.
Numerous opportunities for significant economic improvement.
Known zones remain open for expansion, including into high-grade areas.
Highly prospective and large land package untested with modern exploration methods.
“This first NI43-101-compliant PEA on the Macmillan Pass Project represents a significant step for the Company as we progress the Project towards production. Project economics in the PEA demonstrate that Macmillan Pass is not just viable at the zinc, lead and silver prices levels contemplated in the study, but highly robust,” commented Brandon Macdonald, Chief Executive Officer. “With consideration of the exploration upside not just at the known zones, but also within the broader land package, the Project is steadily shaping up to be a premiere district-scale zinc mining camp in the mining-friendly Yukon Territory.”
Overview of PEA Results and Assumptions
Summary Table of Economic Inputs and Results
Cash Flows (Undiscounted)
NPV at 8%
Cash Flows (Undiscounted)
NPV at 8%
Net Smelter Return3
Per Tonne Mined
Pit Mining Costs
Underground Mining Costs
Sustaining Capital & Closure
Adjusted Operating Margin
1. Base case prices for zinc, lead and silver are the average of three years past and projected two years forward by analysis of London Metal Exchange futures as of April 30, 2018.
2. Spot prices at close of London Metal Exchange on April 30, 2018.
3.Net smelter returns are net of off-site costs including TC/RCs, freight and penalties
Capital & Operating Cost Estimates
Table of Initial and …read more
Recapping The FOMC Minutes, Italian Politics, and Oil Reports
Chris Temple is with us today to recap some of the major news events from this week. We start with the recent FOMC minutes in terms of the comments regarding inflation and the flattening of the yield curve. We then look to Italy and the impact the current political situation is having on Italian bonds and Euro expectations. Finally the oil market is discussed as recent inventories grew but did not impact price to any great extent.
King Dollar and Trade War Worries Persist
Marc Chandler, Head of Global Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman joins me today to provide some insights into the currency markets. The Yen has moved up but this is not due to a safe haven run into the currency. Look to futures positions in the Euro. We also discuss the ongoing trade talks that are providing no clarity.