Daily Reckoning

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  • The Secret to Acing an Interview After 50

    The Secret to Acing an Interview After 50

    This post The Secret to Acing an Interview After 50 appeared first on Daily Reckoning. The biggest stumbling blocks to older workers are… Avoid putting this red flag on your resume… Nothing ages someone more in an interview than… Dear Rich Lifer, Finding work in your 50s or 60s is no easy task, but new and somewhat surprising employment data suggests that prospects are improving, especially for older job seekers. One big reason? This is the tightest labor market in nearly two decades, causing employers to look beyond the sea of Millennial candidates. At the end of July, there were nearly 7.3 million unfilled jobs, but only 6.1 million people looking for work, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The unemployment rate in July for Americans 55 years and over was 2.7 percent, less than the overall unemployment rate at 3.7 percent. What’s more encouraging is the average length of unemployment for older job seekers has dropped significantly since 2012. It’s down from roughly 50 weeks to 34 weeks for job hunters age 55 to 64 and down from about 62 weeks to 30 weeks for those 65+. In other words, it takes about seven to eight months on …Read More »
  • Major Recession Alarm Sounds

    Major Recession Alarm Sounds

    This post Major Recession Alarm Sounds appeared first on Daily Reckoning. Red, red, in every direction we turn today… red. The Dow Jones shed 800 scarlet points on the day. Percentage wise, both S&P and Nasdaq took similar whalings. The S&P lost 86 points. And the Nasdaq… 242. And so the market paid back all of yesterday’s trade-induced gains — with heaps of interest. Worrying economic data drifting out of China and Germany were partly accountable. Chinese industrial production growth has slackened to 4.8% year over year — its lowest rate since 2002. And given China’s nearly infinite data-torturing capacities, we are confident the authentic number is lower yet. Meantime, the economic engine of Europe has slipped into reverse. The latest German data revealed second-quarter GDP contracted 0.1%. Combine the German and Chinese tales… and you partially explain today’s frights. But today’s primary bugaboo is not China or Germany — or China and Germany. Today’s primary bugaboo is rather our old friend the yield curve… A telltale portion of the yield curve inverted this morning (details below). An inverted yield curve is a nearly perfect fortune teller of recession. An inverted yield curve has preceded recession on seven out of …Read More »
  • China: Paper Tiger

    China: Paper Tiger

    This post China: Paper Tiger appeared first on Daily Reckoning. China’s shock currency devaluation last week begs the following questions: Is China a rising giant of the twenty-first century poised to overtake the United States in wealth and military prowess? Or is it a house of cards preparing to implode? Conventional wisdom espouses the former. Yet, hard evidence suggests the latter. Your correspondent in the world famous Long Bar on the Bund in Shanghai, China. The Long Bar (about 50-yards long) was originally built in 1911 during the heyday of foreign imperialism in China just before the formation of the Republic of China (1912-1949). Bar regulars were divided into “tai-pans” (bosses who sat near the window), “Shanghailanders” (who sat in the middle), and “griffins” (newcomers who sat at the far end). I made my first visits to Hong Kong and Taiwan in 1981 and my first visit to Communist China in 1991. I have made many visits to the mainland over the past twenty years and have been careful to move beyond Beijing (the political capital) and Shanghai (the financial capital) on these trips. My visits have included Chongqing, Wuhan, Xian, Nanjing, new construction sites to visit “ghost cities,” and …Read More »
  • Why China’s a Paper Tiger

    Why China’s a Paper Tiger

    This post Why China’s a Paper Tiger appeared first on Daily Reckoning. Markets are still digesting last week’s Chinese devaluation that sent the Dow crashing over 700 points last Monday. And as everyone knows by now, the Trump administration labelled China a currency manipulator. The ironic part of it is that China has been manipulating its currency to strengthen it against the dollar. Here’s the dynamic you need to understand… The Chinese yuan is softly pegged to the dollar. To maintain the soft peg, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) sells dollars and buys yuan. That props up the yuan. It’s basic supply and demand economics. One of the primary reasons China tries to strengthen the yuan is to prevent capital flight out of the country. If the yuan depreciates too rapidly, massive amounts of Chinese money would look to flee abroad where it can get much higher returns. After all, would you want to hold a rapidly deteriorating asset that constantly loses value? Or if you were a Chinese investor, would you try to convert your money into a currency that holds its value? That’s the question Chinese investors have been facing. A capital drain could devastate the Chinese …Read More »
  • EXPOSED: Another Currency Manipulator!

    EXPOSED: Another Currency Manipulator!

    This post EXPOSED: Another Currency Manipulator! appeared first on Daily Reckoning. Currency manipulator! Today we point an indignant and accusing finger at the latest currency manipulator. Let all proper authorities take notice. The accused is not China — incidentally. But we cannot proceed without first noting another manipulated market… The stock market presented a distressed scene this morning. Plunging bond yields are the explanation widely on offer (falling yields reflect a poor economic outlook). Yields on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.595% this morning — lowest since autumn 2016. The Dow Jones was down 589 points before an invisible hand intervened, stabilized the bond market… and redirected the stock market. The index nonetheless lost 22 points on the day. Both S&P and Nasdaq gained on the day. Meantime, gold spins into delirium — gaining another $25 today — to $1,509.50. But now that the administration has hung a “currency manipulator” sign from China’s neck… we are duty-bound to expose the latest currency manipulators. Our spies have marshalled the evidence. It is circumstantial evidence, we freely concede. It is nonetheless damning — more than sufficient to empanel a grand jury. Who are these latest currency swindlers? Here we refer to the …Read More »