• Jack Chan's Weekly Precious Metals Update

    Jack Chan's Weekly Precious Metals Update

    Source: Jack Chan for Streetwise Reports 02/20/2018 Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets. Our proprietary cycle indicator is down. The gold sector is on a long-term buy signal. Long-term signals can last for months and years and are more suitable for investors holding for long term. The gold sector is on a short-term sell signal. Short-term signals can last for days and weeks, and are more suitable for traders. Speculation is in bull market values. This is a massive bottoming pattern four years in the making. Silver is on a long-term buy signal. SLV is on a short-term sell signal, and short-term signals can last for days to weeks, more suitable for traders. Data supports overall higher prices. SummaryThe precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on sell signals; a pullback is in progress. The cycle is down. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Jack Chan is the editor of simply profits at www.simplyprofits.org, established in 2006. Chan bought his first mining stock, Hoko Exploration, in 1979, and has been active in the markets for the past 37 years. Technical analysis has helped him filter out the noise and focus on the when, and leave the why to the fundamental analysts. His proprietary trading models have enabled him to identify the NASDAQ top in 2000, the new gold bull market in 2001, the stock market top in 2007, and the U.S. dollar bottom in 2011. Want to read more Gold Report articles like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you'll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent articles and interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page. Disclosure: 1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Jack Chan and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Jack Chan is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the article preparation or editing so the author could speak independently about the sector. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. 2) Jack Chan: We do not offer predictions or forecasts for the markets. What you see here is our simple trading model, which provides us the signals and set-ups to be either long, short, or in cash at any given time. Entry points and stops are provided in real time to subscribers, therefore, this update may not reflect our current positions in the markets. Trade at your own discretion. We also provide coverage to the major indexes and oil sector. 3) This article does ...read more
  • Silver is 'Off the Radar' But Shouldn't Be

    Silver is 'Off the Radar' But Shouldn't Be

    Source: Clive Maund for Streetwise Reports 02/18/2018 Silver has zero appeal for momentum traders now, but technical analyst Clive Maund believes that is going to change.Silver is completely "off the radar" for most investors right now, which is just the way we like it when we are buying, however, as we will see, there are good reasons to believe that this will not be the case for much longer. On its latest 8-year chart we can see why silver has zero appeal for momentum traders now—it ain't goin' nowhere, or so it would seem, if you project past performance into the future, but as we have repeatedly observed in recent months, it is marking out a giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom, which is quite heavily disguised compared to the concurrent flat topped H&S bottom forming in gold, because it is downsloping. A key bullish point to observe on this chart is the steady volume buildup over the past two years, which is a sign that it is building up to a major bull market. This hasn't had much effect on volume indicators so far, but such is not the case with gold, where a more marked volume buildup has driven volume indicators strongly higher so that they recently made new highs, which bodes well not just for gold, but obviously for silver, too. Moving on to observe recent action in more detail on the 6-month chart, we see that silver dropped back further than predicted in the last update, which is hardly surprising considering what happened to the broad stock market. No technical damage was incurred, however, and it has already clawed back a part of the loss. What now?—like gold, silver may drop back again short-term on another modest dollar rally, which appeared to have started on Friday, and any such drop will be viewed as presenting another opportunity to accumulate more silver and silver related investments, especially given silver's latest COTs, which are "flat-out bullish" as we will now proceed to see. The latest COTs show that the Large Specs have “thrown in the towel” on silver and gone home—great!—that's what we like to see. This extremely low level of Large Spec long positions is very bullish indeed for silver and also implies that gold could soon rally too, despite its COTs not being so positive, although as mentioned above both metals are likely to have to weather a modest dollar rally first. Click on chart to pop-up a larger, clearer version. In summary, whilst a minor short-term dip on a modest dollar rally looks likely, silver's chart are very bullish overall as it appears to be readying to break out of it giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom. Any near-term weakness will therefore be viewed as presenting an excellent and possibly final chance to accumulate silver and especially silver stocks at very low prices ahead of major sectorwide bull market commencing. Clive Maund has been ...read more
  • Large Speculators and the House of Pain

    Large Speculators and the House of Pain

    Source: Michael J. Ballanger for Streetwise Reports 02/18/2018 Every bottom in gold is characterized by massive long liquidation by the Large Specs, precious metals analyst Michael Ballanger states.This week's COT report once again confirms that the Large Speculators are arguably the stupidest group of gold traders in existence. To be certain, as criminality is to the Commercials, brainlessness is to the Large Specs. They are constantly long massive positions at major turning points in gold and silver and are consistently on the wrong side of the trade. Pundits love to refer to the Small Speculators as "dumb retail" or the typically green, blindly optimistic newcomer piling into gold futures after receiving an e-blast from one of the blogs praising the regenerative powers of gold and silver. However, I have been watching the Small Specs for a while now and they have actually been on the right side far more often, but without question, residing forever and a day in the House of Pain, are the Large Specs. The last two COT reports illustrate this point perfectly but first take a peek at the last 30 days of gold trading. You can see how the gold market traded down in the two COT weeks ended February 6 and 13 amidst massive liquidation by the large speculators. Now observe the massive liquidation of all of those positions bought in late January as high as $1,370 as the blogger world chortled and chimed "$1,360 breakout!!!" Recalling "MJB Rule 1 of Gold Trading," what is it that we do when an obvious technical support or resistance level is taken out? Why, we go the other way of course! You SELL "breakouts" and you BUY "breakdowns" because of one resounding theme: THE GOLD MARKET IS RIGGED. 31,656 contracts were purged from the Large Spec portfolios representing 3,165,600 ounces of gold with a notional value (assuming average liquidation price of $1,315) of $4,162,764,000. Forget about the cretins on the other side of those comedic capitulations; we KNOW all about the machinations of the Commercials. What slays me, though, is just how much money is lost and how it happens literally four or five times a year but what is unmistakeable is that every bottom in gold is characterized by massive long liquidation by the Large Specs. Last week I was feeling pretty much vindicated as the UVXY (ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures EFT) got hammered back down into the mid-teens from my exit points at $23-25 after a brief stint above $30, as the panic of early February was replaced by the solace and certainty of plunge protection. Massaged back under $10 by the serial interventionalists and master manipulators manning the trading desks of the government-sponsored agencies around the planet, you want to avoid this vehicle for another few weeks as you can pretty much assume that the big boys will resume their volatility-suppressing antics if for no ...read more
  • Is a New Gold Bull Market on the Horizon?

    Is a New Gold Bull Market on the Horizon?

    Source: Clive Maund for Streetwise Reports 02/18/2018 A read of the gold charts is indicating that a breakout and new bull market are simply a matter of time, says technical analyst Clive Maund.Gold continues to prepare to break out of its giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern. As we can see on its 8-year chart below, this base pattern has been developing for getting on for five years now, so it has major implications. Upside volume has been building for a long time, driving volume indicators higher, a sign that a breakout and new bull market are simply a matter of time, and not much at that now. There has been much grumbling and muttering within the gold community about how "The Cartel" and the Comex etc are holding the gold price in restraint by means of naked short selling, and hitting the market with supply when trading is thin during public holidays and overnight and so on, but the fact of the matter is that the reason why the Precious Metals sector has taken a back seat for years now is that there have been hotter games in town, like Biotech, Bitcoin, Cannabis, the FANGS, Tech generally, etc. and endless quantities of cheap money to bid them up into the stratosphere. So that is where the action has been. However, to everything its season and all that is coming to an end now, and the recent plunge in the stock market was a "shot across the bows" to all who would heed it, indicating that a new bear market is starting, but don't go telling that to the buy the dip crowd. Gold does well and has its best bull markets when stocks generally are in a bear market, so don't get fooled by PM stocks falling with the stock market at this time—that won't last. Thus it is worth observing that gold has outperformed stocks during the period since the stock market plunge started—it is back where it was before the plunge, which is more than can be said for stocks. Before looking at gold's shorter term 6-month chart, it is worth taking a quick detour to see how it is getting on against some other currencies. Over the past year or so the dollar has dropped quite hard, with the prime beneficiary of this drop being the euro, which has risen substantially. Therefore we should not be surprised to see that gold has dropped against the euro during this same period. What is interesting to observe on the 8-year chart for gold in euros, however, is that it has arrived at the lower boundary of a large uptrend that has turned the price back up on two occasions already. This suggests that gold is going to rise even in euros, and since the dollar is expected to continue to drop, regardless of any brief countertrend rally, it means that it should rise faster ...read more
  • What the Markets Have in Common with the Film 'Casablanca'

    What the Markets Have in Common with the Film 'Casablanca'

    Source: Michael Ballanger for Streetwise Reports 02/17/2018 Technical expert Michael Ballanger discusses current market fluctuations and the gold and silver markets. As I watched Wednesday's CPI (inflation) number reported by the Commerce Department, I was immediately reminded of that classic scene from legendary WWII flick "Casablanca," where Claude Rains, playing police Captain Renault, shuts down Humphrey Bogart's casino/nightclub with the immortal words, "I shocked—SHOCKED—to find out that gambling is going on in here!" The croupier hands him a wad of bills—"Your winnings, sir"—to which he says, "Oh thank you very much. Now everyone out of here!" Well, I was shocked—SHOCKED, I tell you—to see that the U.S. inflation numbers came in a tad "hot." After all, the Fed has added some $5 trillion in additional "assets" to its balance sheet since 2008 and encouraged its foreign central bank cousins to do the same, which they have done with even greater enthusiasm. The movement toward serial currency-trashing has had us all awaiting the inevitable return of 1970s-style inflation, but thanks to the creative accounting and fictitious reporting, inflation is seen as "tame" by mostly everyone—but especially the financial media and "bond-badeers." The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has been increasing every year since 1980 with only a brief respite during the tech boom of the late '90s, and that has been a global theme of commonality as fiscal recklessness became the clarion call for Baby Boomers the world over. Nearly 10 years of financial repression has finally lifted as bond yields are rising to levels never quite seen by the legions of Millennials now trading for their livelihoods. The expansion of the Fed balance sheet has long been a source of fascination for me as I could never understand how any entity owned by its members (which are banks that are required to keep a minimum of reserves on hand and must report financial positions) could be allowed to buy trillions of dollars of toxic paper from its members in order for those members to avoid bankruptcy—and then report those noxious purchases as "assets" that remain on the books at book value. If they were threatening to sink the member banks, how can they be booked at face value or par? Should the Fed not report them as "non-performing loans," leaving a large hole in that balance sheet? Should the Fed, which is not a part of the U.S. government, not be audited, as are its members ("owners")? Why can the Fed buy, sell, and short (think volatility and gold) infinite amounts of anything and everything without ever getting a margin call? Are you not shocked—SHOCKED—that the Captain Renault of bond vigilante-ism isn't closing down that casino? Stocks caught an enormous bid this past week after the ice-water wake-up call ...read more
  • Bayhorse Silver Produces Silver

    Bayhorse Silver Produces Silver

    Source: Bob Moriarty for Streetwise Reports 02/16/2018 Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold recommends doing the math to profit from silver, and describes a silver miner he believes is "on to something." For all the braying of donkeys on the web of whatever size and flavor, the fact remains that at any given day and time no one knows what the correct price for silver or gold might be. Is $1,360 the right price for gold and $16.51 the right price for silver? Is $50,000 right for gold and $2,000 for silver? Is gold really worth only $750 or will it become worthless, as John McAfee said recently in December just before nailing the very top in "Bitcon"? We just don't know and investors are being forced into listening to whatever guru does the best job of fulfilling their fantasies. There actually is a far easier and more profitable way to make money. In reality I suppose it's the only way to make money. If you notice carefully, of the dozens of resource websites, how many of them actually give you information you can profit on? For all the whining of jackasses, how often do they give you signal rather than noise? I discovered something that works well for me. I wrote about it in Nobody Knows Anything. You should buy cheap and sell dear. That's so simple it confuses people. It's simple, but not easy. As I write, gold is quoted at $1,360.70, silver at $16.89. It was different yesterday and will change again on Monday because everyone else is as clueless about the correct price as you and I are. But. But. If we ignore the dollar and take it out of the equation entirely, we can price gold in terms of silver and perhaps that will give us an idea of what is cheap and what is expensive. If we bother to do the math, right now, it takes 80.56 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. However, we still don't know what is cheap and what is expensive. So we do a tiny bit of research on our own since we are the people who profit from our wise investments. We learn that in the last 150 years, the ratio of silver to gold has varied from about 16–1 to 100–1. And we can presume that unless aliens land tomorrow in ships made of pure gold, for the immediate future the silver-to-gold ratio would be in that 16–1 to 100–1 range. So simple math shows us that right now silver is cheap relative to gold and gold is expensive relative to silver. That's a signal, not noise. There is a difference. If we take it a little further we can see that relative to real estate, the stock market and works of art, commodities in general are cheap. So we buy what are cheap—commodities—and within commodities we buy what is cheap: silver. I like both ...read more
  • Gold Miner Boosts Reserves by 86% Year Over Year

    Gold Miner Boosts Reserves by 86% Year Over Year

    Source: Streetwise Reports 02/15/2018 BMO Capital Markets analyst Andrew Kaip shared the highlights of this company's recently reported mineral reserves. In a Feb. 12, 2018, research note titled "2017: A Year of Reserve Growth," Andrew Kaip, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, reported that Canada-based IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG:TSX; IAG:NYSE) released a reserves update. The mining company's new numbers reflect an 86% year-over-year increase to 14.5 million ounces (14.5 Moz) of gold from 7.8 Moz of gold, assuming a price for the metal of $1,200 an ounce. The total encompasses an additional 3.8 Moz at Cote, 1.5 Moz at Rosebel and 1.4 Moz at Boto. Measured and Indicated resources grew 6% to 24.7 Moz gold. Inferred resources expanded 44% to 8.8 Moz gold. As for reserve grades, they generally were up at Sadiola but "down marginally" at Rosebel and Essakane," Kaip indicated. At Westwood specifically, reserve grade dropped 13% to 7.7 grams per ton gold, which is "more realistic given mine grades continue to be below reserve grade." The analyst also noted the results of the recent prefeasibility study done on the Boto project. It shows an after-tax internal rate of return of 13.3% and a net present value 6% of $104 million ($104M). Based on a 1.4 Moz reserve, production is an estimated 100,000 ounces of gold per annum for 13.5 years. Capital costs are an estimated $249M. All-in-sustaining costs are expected to be $829 per ounce for the life of mine. Kaip added that these numbers "have yet to meet IAMGOLD's investment threshold." To bolster project economics, the company is pursuing a feasibility study for Boto that will consider a 25% throughput increase. BMO Capital has an Outperform rating and a $7 per share price target on IAMGOLD, whose stock is currently trading at around $6.02 per share. Want to read more Gold Report articles like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you'll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent articles and interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page. Disclosure: 1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. 2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. 3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 4) The article does ...read more
  • Allegiant Gold Begins Major Nevada Operations

    Allegiant Gold Begins Major Nevada Operations

    Source: Bob Moriarty for Streetwise Reports 02/14/2018 The spin-out from Columbus Gold provides investors with clear choices between two entirely different vehicles, says Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold.Columbus Gold Corp. (CGT:TSX; CGTFF:OTCQX) made an intelligent business decision when they determined they should vend their non-core assets into a new company. They are retaining substantial ownership in the new vehicle but investors now have clear choices between two entirely different vehicles. I wrote about the company and the spin-out in early December. Columbus Gold will continue to advance their 45% owned gold project in French Guiana. But their partner is Russian, Nordgold, and has no particular reason to be interested in the remaining fourteen exploration projects in Nevada. The spinout company is called Allegiant Gold Ltd. (AUAU:TSX.V; AZLLF:OTCBB) and began trading on January 30, 2018. The timing could have been better as luck would have it. The overall market crash generated margin calls for many investors and they began to sell everything liquid. Columbus was trading at $0.54 post split and since dropped to $0.38. I heard someone make an interesting analogy about how even good stocks get dumped in a crash. He said, "In an airplane crash, even the pretty girls die." So I stole it. Allegiant is run by Andy Wallace, the discoverer of half a dozen major gold projects in Nevada. That's his stomping ground and Allegiant has a total of eleven drill-ready gold projects in the state. The primary focus of Allegiant is the Eastside gold project that has a current 43-101 resource of 721,000 gold equivalent ounces in addition to a historic resource of 272,000 ounces. Part of the spinout deal required Allegiant to raise money. They closed a private placement for just over $4 million in December of 2017. Allegiant plans an aggressive drill program starting with Eastside where the goal is to double the inpit ounces and reduce the strip ratio at the same time. At the same time, Andy Wallace's expert team intends to move forward aggressively on ten of the other projects. These are all projects Columbus has sat on for years and got no value for. Now the market can determine what Columbus Gold's 1.23 million ounces in reserves at Montagne d'Or in French Guiana is worth as Allegiant moves forward in the US. I'm not totally certain just who did the corporate presentation for Allegiant but it is one of the best I have ever seen. In simple terms it explains why the Allegiant story is so compelling. I highly suggest all interested investors at least give it a glance if for no other reason than to see excellent writing. Allegiant is an advertiser. I own shares in both Allegiant and Columbus Gold and participated in the latest Allegiant private placement. Naturally I am biased so you are as always responsible for your own due diligence. Allegiant Gold AUAU-V $0.60 (Feb 14, 2018) ...read more
  • For Gold, It's Goldilocks Inflation

    For Gold, It's Goldilocks Inflation

    Source: Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony for Streetwise Reports 02/14/2018 Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, delve into the question of whether inflation is good for gold.Is inflation good for gold? It depends. If inflation provokes a hawkish Fed to raise rates faster than inflation, not so much. But if the Fed is worried about the stock and bond markets and therefore won't raise rates fast enough to keep pace with inflation, that's good for gold. And that's where we seem to be now. Fear of inflation has been weighing on the bond market, helping to drive interest rates higher, and that's been a negative for the stock market. On February 14, we got a "hot" CPI number that confirmed the market's fears and the initial reaction was to sell stocks and gold, sending them lower, and the dollar caught a bid. That's the response you would expect from anticipation of a more hawkish Fed. But then came the reversal and quickly. The dollar tanked, gold soared and the stock market mounted a comeback. However, the bond market also fell, pushing yields higher at the long end. That is going to put renewed pressure on stocks if the last few weeks tell us anything. We now have two reasons to think interest rates are going higher. First, there is the late cycle stimulus to the economy from the Trump tax plan and budget, which are forecast to drive the annual budget deficit to a $1 trillion, double the recent past. This is a boost to spending without a commensurate increase in economic output because, as we all know, the government does not produce goods and services. This is inflationary and that appears to be the bond market's interpretation; the bond market has been under pressure since the tax plan was passed last December. Second, the issuance of new debt will double to $1 trillion in 2018 while at the same time the Federal Reserve is scheduled to be selling assets (Treasuries and mortgage bonds) at an annual rate of $600 billion by October of this year. All this added supply is going to pressure rates higher. Higher rates and a weaker dollar are not typical companions. Neither are higher rates and higher stock prices. But a weak dollar and a steeper yield curve are historically good for gold. All considered, we could be brewing a perfect storm for gold. Let's see if gold can punch through the 2016 high around $1,370. If so, the game may be on. Gold could be the best game in town. This article is the collaboration of Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, and reflects the thinking that has helped make them successful gold investors. Rudi is the current Chairman and CEO of Seabridge and Jim is one of its largest shareholders. Disclaimer: The authors are not registered or accredited as investment advisors. Information contained ...read more
  • Income Up, Strong Operations and a Rebirth 

    Income Up, Strong Operations and a Rebirth 

    Source: Adrian Day for Streetwise Reports 02/14/2018 Developments at three companies, all of them "in varying degrees positive," receive recognition from Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management. Gladstone Investment Corp. (GAIN: NASDAQ 10.29, 7.6%) had a stellar quarter, with net income, unrealized gains, and book value all up; nonaccrual loans down. Net investment income is well above the current dividend, despite an increase in October; in the latest quarter, unusually, 177% above the payout, though much of this is due to one loan that came off nonaccrual, with $1.4 million of prior interest recovery. The company now has $12 million of undistributed income and net realized gains, about $0.38 per share. This will be used to fund the semiannual extra distributions. Debt instruments, accounting for 73% of the portfolio, funds the regular monthly dividend, while gains are intended to fund the extra distributions. Gladstone also made several investments this past quarter, though these are always lumpy. One, $31 million in debt and equity, went to a new company; $8.4 million went to additional investments in existing portfolio companies. Even after this, the company has plenty of capacity on its credit facility and said it was not looking to increase that. With interest rates rising, Gladstone's 97% of outstanding loans being at variable rates, is a positive. Higher distributions ahead? Even without another regular dividend increase, and assuming bonus distributions equal to those of last year—the company has the undistributed gains and realized gains for that—the prospective yield runs to 8.76%. It could likely be higher. Gladstone is a solid hold for us, and a buy, preferably on a pullback, if you do not own. Mostly Strong Operations Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX, US$80.96) saw stronger-than-expected revenues from several of its large royalties and streams, more than offsetting the already announced shortfall at Mt. Milligan, which accounts for nearly a quarter of net asset value. Half of Milligan's processing came back on at the end of January and it is expected to be fully operational by April. In addition, Rainy River, on which Royal has a stream, announced the start of commercial operations ahead of target. The bad news included a couple of special items, such as a charge for the new U.S. tax legislation, and a currency charge. Royal's balance sheet is not the strongest of the "big four" but it is in good shape, with liquidity of $950 million, more than sufficient for another major acquisition. The decline in the stock price was overdone—Royal was not alone in that last week—and it is a buy at this level. After a Long Wait, New Direction at Reservoir Reservoir Capital Corp. (REO:TSX.V, halted) announced an agreement with a major shareholder in Nigeria's leading hydropower producer, which will result in Reservoir holding a 1.3% interest in the producer, while the shareholder, KPHL, will hold 77% of Reservoir's stock. We ...read more